MONMOUTH
HAWKSMONM
5-5 | Road
65
FAIRFIELD
STAGSFAIR
5-5 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
STAGS
0%
HAWKS
--
STAGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
FAIRFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Fairfield)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FAIR -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAIR)
MONM By 1-7 points
0.6%
MONM By 8-14 points
0.1%
FAIR By 1-7 points
4.0%
FAIR By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Monmouth
68
MONMOUTH
Fairfield
92
FAIRFIELD
Simulated Score
Monmouth
70
MONMOUTH
Fairfield
73
FAIRFIELD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Stags
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Stags
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Stags (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim
Stags (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 14, 2025
MONM @ FAIR
65 - 73
Dec 21, 2024
FAIR @ MONM
74 - 88
Feb 4, 2022
FAIR @ MONM
56 - 59
Jan 20, 2022
MONM @ FAIR
61 - 58
Mar 10, 2021
FAIR @ MONM
79 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+38.2% more
Fairfield: 12.0
vs
Monmouth: 8.7
Rebounding (L5)
+15.0% more
Fairfield: 39.3
vs
Monmouth: 34.2
Steals (L5)
+24.3% more
Monmouth: 8.6
vs
Fairfield: 6.5
Assists (L5)
+22.5% more
Monmouth: 14.6
vs
Fairfield: 11.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MONM Score
68.0
65
FAIR Score
92.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.6 / 33.8
47.0 / 29.0
Assists
11.3 / 14.6
15.0 / 19.0
Blocks
3.1 / 3.6
6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
40.6 / 42.0
48.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
70.6 / 73.6
20.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
39.3 / 34.2
40.0 / 31.0
Steals
6.5 / 8.6
3.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 8.7
9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MONM
19-15-0
(55.9%)
Margin: 1.8
ATS +/-: +1.9
FAIR
Advantage
21-13-0
(61.8%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MONM
Advantage
17-15-1
(53.1%)
Margin: 1.8
ATS +/-: +1.9
FAIR
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MONM
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5%
Total +/-: +0.1
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAIR
MONM
FAIR
MONM
ML
55%
18-15
62%
21-13
61%
20-13
64%
21-12
ATS
48%
16-17
62%
21-13
61%
20-13
64%
21-12
TTL
48%
16-17
59%
20-14
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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