Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Trojans @ Blazers TROY @ UAB

TROY

TROJANSTROY

6-5  |  Road

86
FINAL
Sun, Dec 14 • 3:00 PM ET
Bartow Arena
View Odds Details →

UAB

BLAZERSUAB

7-3  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
0%
📊
BLAZERS
100%
TROJANS --
BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
109.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
TROY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Troy)
TrojansTROY (-3.5) 0 BlazersUAB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trojans Cover

99.4%

Blazers Cover

0.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TROY -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)

TROY By 1-7 points

3.3%

TROY By 8-14 points

10.7%

UAB By 1-7 points

0.5%

UAB By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
67
TROY
42
UAB
Simulated Score
74
TROY
78
UAB
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Trojans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blazers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Trojans (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Blazers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 109.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 14, 2025 TROY @ UAB 86 - 85
Dec 6, 2020 TROY @ UAB 55 - 77
Nov 7, 2019 UAB @ TROY 76 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +37.9% more
Troy: 16.0 vs UAB: 10.0
Assists (L5) +35.9% more
Troy: 18.1 vs UAB: 11.6
Steals (L5) +29.3% more
Troy: 9.8 vs UAB: 7.0
Rebounding (L5) +9.5% more
Troy: 48.2 vs UAB: 43.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TROY Score 67.0 86
UAB Score 42.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 24.5 / 28.5 38.0 / 50.0
Assists 11.6 / 18.1 19.0 / 18.0
Blocks 4.5 / 3.5 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.1 / 45.5 56.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 74.0 / 70.4 69.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 43.7 / 48.2 33.0 / 29.0
Steals 7.0 / 9.8 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.0 / 16.0 10.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TROY Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: -1.0
UAB
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TROY Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: -1.0
UAB
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.8
UAB
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UAB
TROY
UAB
TROY
ML
59% 19-13
59% 20-14
41% 13-19
61% 20-13
ATS
56% 18-14
65% 22-12
41% 13-19
61% 20-13
TTL
69% 22-10
56% 19-15
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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