DETROIT MERCY
TITANSDETM
4-7 | Road
77
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
MASTODONSPFW
7-6 | Home
81
AI Model Win Probability
TITANS
0%
MASTODONS
100%
TITANS
--
MASTODONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PFW +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PFW)
DETM By 1-7 points
27.2%
DETM By 8-14 points
23.0%
PFW By 1-7 points
18.6%
PFW By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit Mercy
77
DETROIT MERCY
Purdue Fort Wayne
72
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Simulated Score
Detroit Mercy
68
DETROIT MERCY
Purdue Fort Wayne
82
PURDUE FORT WAYNE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Titans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mastodons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mastodons (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim
Mastodons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u153.5
Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 21, 2026
PFW @ DETM
83 - 76
Dec 14, 2025
DETM @ PFW
77 - 81
Jan 11, 2025
DETM @ PFW
67 - 90
Dec 5, 2024
PFW @ DETM
78 - 79
Feb 17, 2024
PFW @ DETM
83 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+9.6% more
Detroit Mercy: 37.0
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 33.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.5%
Detroit Mercy: 79.4%
vs
Purdue Fort Wayne: 75.0%
Steals (L5)
+95.0% more
Purdue Fort Wayne: 9.3
vs
Detroit Mercy: 4.8
Blocks (L5)
+46.7% more
Purdue Fort Wayne: 4.7
vs
Detroit Mercy: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DETM Score
77.0
77
PFW Score
72.0
81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.1 / 31.0
32.0 / 45.0
Assists
14.4 / 13.8
15.0 / 12.0
Blocks
4.7 / 3.2
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
49.7 / 43.9
48.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
75.0 / 79.4
52.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
33.5 / 37.0
34.0 / 44.0
Steals
9.3 / 4.8
6.0 / 1.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 9.1
2.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DETM
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-: +3.7
PFW
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DETM
Advantage
20-9-1
(69.0%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-: +3.7
PFW
12-17-0
(41.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DETM
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +0.3
PFW
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PFW
DETM
PFW
DETM
ML
59%
19-13
58%
18-13
74%
23-8
50%
15-15
ATS
62%
20-12
61%
19-12
74%
23-8
50%
15-15
TTL
59%
19-13
61%
19-12
100%
31-0
100%
30-0
Contextual Game News
