Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mean Green @ Jaguars UNT @ USA

NORTH TEXAS

MEAN GREENUNT

8-3  |  Road

58
FINAL
Sun, Dec 14 • 5:30 PM ET
Mitchell Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTH ALABAMA

JAGUARSUSA

8-3  |  Home

57
AI Model Win Probability
MEAN GREEN
100%
📊
JAGUARS
0%
MEAN GREEN --
JAGUARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (South Alabama)
Mean GreenUNT (-3.5) 0 JaguarsUSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mean Green Cover

21.2%

Jaguars Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USA -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USA)

UNT By 1-7 points

13.7%

UNT By 8-14 points

4.8%

USA By 1-7 points

25.3%

USA By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
65
NORTH TEXAS
73
SOUTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
60
NORTH TEXAS
65
SOUTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jaguars Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jaguars Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jaguars (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Jaguars (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 14, 2025 UNT @ USA 58 - 57
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.4%
South Alabama: 37.4% vs North Texas: 34.9%
Free Throw % (L5) +1.6%
South Alabama: 68.1% vs North Texas: 66.5%
Turnovers (L5) +32.9% more
North Texas: 14.1 vs South Alabama: 9.5
Field Goal % (L5) +2.5%
North Texas: 47.1% vs South Alabama: 44.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNT Score 65.0 58
USA Score 73.0 57
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.4 / 34.9 18.0 / 22.0
Assists 12.7 / 13.2 7.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.3 / 3.6 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 47.1 41.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 68.1 / 66.5 68.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 34.0 / 32.2 33.0 / 33.0
Steals 7.5 / 7.5 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.5 / 14.1 11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNT
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 3.5 ATS +/-: -0.7
USA Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNT
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 3.5 ATS +/-: -0.7
USA
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UNT
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: -0.2
USA
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USA
UNT
USA
UNT
ML
47% 15-17
70% 23-10
57% 17-13
59% 19-13
ATS
53% 17-15
52% 17-16
57% 17-13
59% 19-13
TTL
66% 21-11
67% 22-11
100% 30-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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