Home / NBA Projections NBA / Wizards @ Pacers WSH @ IND

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

3-20  |  Road

108
FINAL
Sun, Dec 14 • 3:00 PM ET
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

PACERSIND

6-19  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
0%
📊
PACERS
100%
WIZARDS --
PACERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Washington)
WizardsWSH (-3.5) 0 PacersIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wizards Cover

93.3%

Pacers Cover

6.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WSH -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1-7 points

15.3%

WSH By 8-14 points

25.3%

IND By 1-7 points

4.8%

IND By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
125
WASHINGTON
110
INDIANA
Simulated Score
110
WASHINGTON
125
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wizards Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pacers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wizards (-10) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Pacers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o234.5 Loss
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim u234.5 Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 20, 2026 IND @ WSH 118 - 131
Feb 19, 2026 IND @ WSH 105 - 112
Dec 14, 2025 WSH @ IND 108 - 89
Nov 28, 2025 WSH @ IND 86 - 119
Apr 8, 2025 WSH @ IND 98 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +30.4% more
Washington: 16.6 vs Indiana: 11.6
Field Goal % (L5) +1.8%
Washington: 47.4% vs Indiana: 45.6%
Steals (L5) +44.4% more
Indiana: 9.0 vs Washington: 6.3
Free Throw % (L5) +2.1%
Indiana: 82.2% vs Washington: 80.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 125.0 108
IND Score 110.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.3 / 36.3 26.0 / 36.0
Assists 24.6 / 26.7 20.0 / 19.0
Blocks 6.0 / 5.9 7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.6 / 47.4 37.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 82.2 / 80.1 81.0 / 62.0
Rebounding 41.5 / 40.9 41.0 / 56.0
Steals 9.0 / 6.3 2.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 16.6 8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
IND Advantage
19-63-0 (23.2%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
IND Advantage
40-42-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
WSH
IND
WSH
ML
48% 47-50
70% 112-49
54% 45-38
47% 39-44
ATS
59% 57-40
69% 111-49-1
54% 45-38
47% 39-44
TTL
54% 52-45
74% 119-41-1
100% 83-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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