Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Trail Blazers GS @ POR

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

13-13  |  Road

131
FINAL
Sun, Dec 14 • 9:00 PM ET
Moda Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

9-16  |  Home

136
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
📊
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
WARRIORS --
TRAIL BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Portland)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 Trail BlazersPOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

6.7%

Trail Blazers Cover

93.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around POR -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)

GS By 1-7 points

4.8%

GS By 8-14 points

1.1%

POR By 1-7 points

15.3%

POR By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
110
GOLDEN STATE
125
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
107
GOLDEN STATE
118
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Trail Blazers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trail Blazers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Trail Blazers (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Trail Blazers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u236.5 Loss
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim u236.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 13, 2026 POR @ GS 97 - 119
Dec 14, 2025 GS @ POR 131 - 136
Nov 21, 2025 POR @ GS 127 - 123
Oct 24, 2025 GS @ POR 119 - 139
Oct 14, 2025 GS @ POR 118 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +86.9% more
Portland: 6.3 vs Golden State: 3.4
Turnovers (L5) +26.8% more
Portland: 18.2 vs Golden State: 14.3
Free Throw % (L5) +1.9%
Portland: 78.9% vs Golden State: 77.0%
Steals (L5) +29.2% more
Golden State: 8.6 vs Portland: 6.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 110.0 131
POR Score 125.0 136
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.9 / 36.7 51.0 / 51.0
Assists 24.1 / 27.0 30.0 / 34.0
Blocks 6.3 / 3.4 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 42.9 / 44.9 51.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 78.9 / 77.0 90.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 44.0 / 45.3 43.0 / 36.0
Steals 6.1 / 8.6 11.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 18.2 / 14.3 18.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
GS
POR
GS
ML
53% 56-49
55% 95-79
55% 49-40
58% 49-35
ATS
62% 65-39-1
58% 101-73
55% 49-40
58% 49-35
TTL
56% 58-46-1
77% 134-40
100% 89-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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