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SAINT MARY'S

GAELSSMC

9-2  |  Road

67
FINAL
Sun, Dec 14 • 6:00 PM ET
Mountain America Center
View Odds Details →

BOISE STATE

BRONCOSBOIS

8-3  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
GAELS
0%
📊
BRONCOS
100%
GAELS --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-44.0
SAINT MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +44.0 points (Saint Mary's)
GaelsSMC (-3.5) 0 BroncosBOIS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Gaels Cover

100.0%

Broncos Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SMC -44.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMC)

SMC By 1-7 points

0.0%

SMC By 8-14 points

0.1%

BOIS By 1-7 points

0.0%

BOIS By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
93
SAINT MARY'S
49
BOISE STATE
Simulated Score
63
SAINT MARY'S
68
BOISE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Gaels Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Gaels (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -44.0
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o137.5 Loss
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 14, 2025 SMC @ BOIS 67 - 68
Dec 14, 2024 SMC @ BOIS 65 - 67
Dec 1, 2023 SMC @ BOIS 60 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +28.4% more
Saint Mary's: 2.8 vs Boise State: 2.0
Turnovers (L5) +16.4% more
Saint Mary's: 12.5 vs Boise State: 10.4
Assists (L5) +37.5% more
Boise State: 14.3 vs Saint Mary's: 10.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.5%
Boise State: 40.0% vs Saint Mary's: 31.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SMC Score 93.0 67
BOIS Score 49.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.0 / 31.5 32.0 / 26.0
Assists 14.3 / 10.4 9.0 / 7.0
Blocks 2.0 / 2.8 1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 46.3 48.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 80.7 / 76.6 86.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 40.8 / 40.8 31.0 / 33.0
Steals 5.0 / 5.2 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 12.5 15.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMC Advantage
27-6-0 (81.8%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
BOIS
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMC Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +1.3
BOIS
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -1.2
BOIS
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOIS
SMC
BOIS
SMC
ML
50% 16-16
56% 18-14
61% 19-12
82% 23-5
ATS
50% 16-16
62% 20-12
61% 19-12
83% 24-5
TTL
56% 18-14
53% 17-15
100% 31-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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