Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Broncos @ Hawkeyes WMU @ IOWA

WESTERN MICHIGAN

BRONCOSWMU

5-6  |  Road

51
FINAL
Sun, Dec 14 • 3:00 PM ET
Carver-Hawkeye Arena
View Odds Details →

IOWA

HAWKEYESIOWA

9-2  |  Home

91
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
100%
📊
HAWKEYES
0%
BRONCOS --
HAWKEYES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
167.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Iowa)
BroncosWMU (-3.5) 0 HawkeyesIOWA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

13.6%

Hawkeyes Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IOWA -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IOWA)

WMU By 1-7 points

9.3%

WMU By 8-14 points

2.7%

IOWA By 1-7 points

21.6%

IOWA By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
78
WESTERN MICHIGAN
89
IOWA
Simulated Score
68
WESTERN MICHIGAN
92
IOWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Hawkeyes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Hawkeyes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Hawkeyes (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Hawkeyes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 167.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 14, 2025 WMU @ IOWA 51 - 91
Nov 22, 2021 WMU @ IOWA 61 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +115.8% more
Iowa: 7.4 vs Western Michigan: 3.4
Blocks (L5) +18.8% more
Western Michigan: 3.1 vs Iowa: 2.5
Rebounding (L5) +18.5% more
Western Michigan: 36.3 vs Iowa: 29.6
Turnovers (L5) +17.1% more
Western Michigan: 14.6 vs Iowa: 12.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WMU Score 78.0 51
IOWA Score 89.0 91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.9 / 43.9 45.0 / 25.0
Assists 15.3 / 14.9 24.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.5 / 3.1 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 48.9 / 50.1 56.0 / 30.0
Free Throw % 62.4 / 76.4 65.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 29.6 / 36.3 38.0 / 36.0
Steals 7.4 / 3.4 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 14.6 6.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WMU
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -4.7 ATS +/-: +1.1
IOWA Advantage
24-13-0 (64.9%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WMU
16-13-0 (55.2%)
Margin: -4.7 ATS +/-: +1.1
IOWA Advantage
21-16-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
WMU
18-11-0
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9% Total +/-: +1.3
IOWA
20-17-0
O: 54.1% / U: 46.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IOWA
WMU
IOWA
WMU
ML
59% 22-15
60% 18-12
78% 28-8
70% 21-9
ATS
76% 28-9
67% 20-10
78% 28-8
70% 21-9
TTL
57% 21-16
57% 17-13
100% 36-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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