Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Roadrunners @ Buffaloes UTSA @ COLO

UTSA

ROADRUNNERSUTSA

4-5  |  Road

64
FINAL
Sat, Dec 13 • 4:00 PM ET
CU Events Center
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

BUFFALOESCOLO

8-1  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
ROADRUNNERS
100%
📊
BUFFALOES
0%
ROADRUNNERS --
BUFFALOES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Colorado)
RoadrunnersUTSA (-3.5) 0 BuffaloesCOLO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Roadrunners Cover

13.6%

Buffaloes Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around COLO -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COLO)

UTSA By 1-7 points

9.3%

UTSA By 8-14 points

2.7%

COLO By 1-7 points

21.6%

COLO By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
76
UTSA
87
COLORADO
Simulated Score
63
UTSA
78
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buffaloes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buffaloes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buffaloes (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Buffaloes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Win
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 13, 2025 UTSA @ COLO 64 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +45.0% more
Colorado: 14.9 vs UTSA: 10.3
Field Goal % (L5) +17.4%
Colorado: 52.8% vs UTSA: 35.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.6%
Colorado: 39.9% vs UTSA: 27.4%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.4%
Colorado: 67.7% vs UTSA: 65.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTSA Score 76.0 64
COLO Score 87.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.9 / 27.4 39.0 / 33.0
Assists 14.9 / 10.3 21.0 / 14.0
Blocks 4.5 / 4.5 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 52.8 / 35.4 49.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 67.7 / 65.3 65.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 34.6 / 40.8 46.0 / 34.0
Steals 5.9 / 6.4 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 8.6 / 13.0 11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTSA
5-25-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -11.3 ATS +/-: -3.9
COLO Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTSA
10-18-0 (35.7%)
Margin: -11.3 ATS +/-: -3.9
COLO Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UTSA
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.2
COLO
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COLO
UTSA
COLO
UTSA
ML
61% 20-13
83% 24-5
69% 22-10
48% 14-15
ATS
73% 24-9
72% 21-8
69% 22-10
50% 15-15
TTL
45% 15-18
66% 19-10
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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