SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
17-7 | Road
111
OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
24-1 | Home
109
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
0%
THUNDER
100%
SPURS
--
THUNDER
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SA -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
SA By 1-7 points
3.3%
SA By 8-14 points
10.7%
OKC By 1-7 points
0.5%
OKC By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
125
SAN ANTONIO
Oklahoma City
100
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
San Antonio
110
SAN ANTONIO
Oklahoma City
120
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spurs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunder
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spurs (-11)
Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim
Thunder (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u233.0
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Sim
u233.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 30, 2026
SA @ OKC
111 - 103
May 28, 2026
OKC @ SA
91 - 118
May 26, 2026
SA @ OKC
114 - 127
May 24, 2026
OKC @ SA
82 - 103
May 22, 2026
OKC @ SA
123 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+79.7% more
Oklahoma City: 5.1
vs
San Antonio: 2.9
Steals (L5)
+29.8% more
Oklahoma City: 9.9
vs
San Antonio: 7.7
Assists (L5)
+16.2% more
Oklahoma City: 29.9
vs
San Antonio: 25.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+8.0%
Oklahoma City: 56.4%
vs
San Antonio: 48.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
125.0
111
OKC Score
100.0
109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
47.6 / 41.3
24.0 / 31.0
Assists
29.9 / 25.7
20.0 / 21.0
Blocks
5.1 / 2.9
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
56.4 / 48.4
41.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
77.4 / 78.4
89.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
43.0 / 45.0
51.0 / 52.0
Steals
9.9 / 7.7
13.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 13.2
15.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
SA
OKC
SA
ML
70%
80-34
60%
111-73
48%
46-49
58%
61-44
ATS
73%
83-30-1
58%
107-76-1
48%
46-49
58%
61-44
TTL
67%
76-38
74%
134-47-3
100%
95-0
100%
105-0
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