Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / James Madison @ Oregon JMU @ ORE

JAMES MADISON

JAMES MADISONJMU

12-1  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 7:30 PM ET
Autzen Stadium
View Odds Details →

OREGON

OREGONORE

11-1  |  Home

51
Key Game
Patrick Rea
KEY GAME

Patrick Rea

#11 | Punter
@
Gavin Nix
KEY GAME

Gavin Nix

#13 | Linebacker
Player
Patrick Rea None-None
Gavin Nix None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAMES MADISON
100%
📊
OREGON
0%
JAMES MADISON --
OREGON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
OREGON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Oregon)
James MadisonJMU (-3.5) 0 OregonORE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

James Madison Cover

41.5%

Oregon Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ORE -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORE)

JMU By 1-6 points

15.3%

JMU By 7-13 points

12.9%

ORE By 1-6 points

17.0%

ORE By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
20
JAMES MADISON
23
OREGON
Simulated Score
20
JAMES MADISON
41
OREGON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Oregon Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Oregon Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Oregon (+20.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Sim Oregon (+20.5) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u46.5 Loss
Proj Total: 43.0
B
Sim o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 61.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 20, 2025 JMU @ ORE 34 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Oregon: 0.5 vs James Madison: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +50.7% more
James Madison: 1.4 vs Oregon: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +35.6% more
James Madison: 269.5 vs Oregon: 173.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JMU Score 20.0 34
ORE Score 23.0 51
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.6 / 21.3 22.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 173.6 / 269.5 201.0 / 186.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.43 / 0.41
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.6
Total Yards 430.4 / 454.4 514.0 / 509.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.4 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
86%TICKETS14%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JMU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 31.6 ATS +/-: +17.3
ORE
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JMU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 31.6 ATS +/-: +17.3
ORE
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
JMU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.3
ORE
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORE
JMU
ORE
JMU
ML
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
ATS
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
TTL
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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