Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Memphis @ NC State MEM @ NCSU

MEMPHIS

MEMPHISMEM

8-4  |  Road

7
FINAL
Fri, Dec 19 • 2:30 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

NC STATE

NC STATENCSU

7-5  |  Home

31
Key Game
Chauncey Logan Jr.
KEY GAME

Chauncey Logan Jr.

#2 | Cornerback
@
Chase Bond
KEY GAME

Chase Bond

#92 | Defensive End
Player
Chauncey Logan Jr. None-None
Chase Bond None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MEMPHIS
0%
📊
NC STATE
100%
MEMPHIS --
NC STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
81.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-75.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +75.0 points (Memphis)
MemphisMEM (-3.5) 0 NC StateNCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Memphis Cover

100.0%

NC State Cover

0.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MEM -75.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

MEM By 1-6 points

0.0%

MEM By 7-13 points

0.0%

NCSU By 1-6 points

0.0%

NCSU By 7-13 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
78
MEMPHIS
3
NC STATE
Simulated Score
24
MEMPHIS
31
NC STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Memphis Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim NC State Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Memphis (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -75.0
B
Sim NC State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 81.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 19, 2025 MEM @ NCSU 7 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +8.2% more
Memphis: 383.2 vs NC State: 351.8
Turnovers (L5) +9.0% more
NC State: 0.6 vs Memphis: 0.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
NC State: 0.4 vs Memphis: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 78.0 7
NCSU Score 3.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.0 / 21.7 17.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 146.9 / 149.1 116.0 / 149.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 351.8 / 383.2 337.0 / 303.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 0.5 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +6.5
NCSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: +4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +6.5
NCSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: +4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.1
NCSU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCSU
MEM
NCSU
MEM
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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