Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Old Dominion @ South Florida ODU @ USF

OLD DOMINION

OLD DOMINIONODU

9-3  |  Road

24
FINAL
Wed, Dec 17 • 5:00 PM ET
Camping World Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTH FLORIDA

SOUTH FLORIDAUSF

9-3  |  Home

10
Key Game
Nathanial Eichner
KEY GAME

Nathanial Eichner

#93 | Place kicker
@
Nico Gramatica
KEY GAME

Nico Gramatica

#7 | Place kicker
Player
Nathanial Eichner None-None
Nico Gramatica None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OLD DOMINION
100%
📊
SOUTH FLORIDA
0%
OLD DOMINION --
SOUTH FLORIDA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
23.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (South Florida)
Old DominionODU (-3.5) 0 South FloridaUSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Old Dominion Cover

47.2%

South Florida Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USF -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USF)

ODU By 1-6 points

16.1%

ODU By 7-13 points

14.6%

USF By 1-6 points

16.7%

USF By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
11
OLD DOMINION
12
SOUTH FLORIDA
Simulated Score
27
OLD DOMINION
31
SOUTH FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI South Florida Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim South Florida Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI South Florida (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
B
Sim South Florida (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 23.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 17, 2025 ODU @ USF 24 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +17.7% more
South Florida: 539.9 vs Old Dominion: 458.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
South Florida: 0.5 vs Old Dominion: 0.5
Turnovers (L5) +38.2% more
Old Dominion: 1.4 vs South Florida: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +16.1% more
Old Dominion: 286.2 vs South Florida: 240.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ODU Score 11.0 24
USF Score 12.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 26.1 / 25.3 19.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 240.0 / 286.2 52.0 / 255.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.31 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 539.9 / 458.7 333.0 / 382.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.4 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ODU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -12.6 ATS +/-: -16.0
USF Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ODU
0-5-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -12.6 ATS +/-: -16.0
USF Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ODU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.3
USF
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -10.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USF
ODU
USF
ODU
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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