Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Boise St @ Washington BOIS @ WASH

BOISE STATE

BOISE STBOIS

9-4  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Dec 13 • 8:00 PM ET
SoFi Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WASHINGTONWASH

8-4  |  Home

38
Key Game
Oscar Doyle
KEY GAME

Oscar Doyle

#37 | Punter
@
Luke Dunne
KEY GAME

Luke Dunne

#45 | Punter
Player
Oscar Doyle None-None
Luke Dunne None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BOISE ST
100%
📊
WASHINGTON
0%
BOISE ST --
WASHINGTON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
33.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Washington)
Boise StBOIS (-3.5) 0 WashingtonWASH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Boise St Cover

17.7%

Washington Cover

82.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WASH -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WASH)

BOIS By 1-6 points

8.6%

BOIS By 7-13 points

5.3%

WASH By 1-6 points

13.5%

WASH By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
10
BOISE STATE
23
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
24
BOISE STATE
38
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Washington Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Washington Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Washington (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
B
Sim Washington (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 33.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 13, 2025 BOIS @ WASH 10 - 38
Sep 2, 2023 BOIS @ WASH 19 - 56
Dec 21, 2019 BOIS @ WASH 7 - 38
Sep 4, 2015 WASH @ BOIS 13 - 16
Aug 31, 2013 BOIS @ WASH 6 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +91.0% more
Washington: 1.7 vs Boise State: 0.7
Total Yards (L5) +16.1% more
Boise State: 440.1 vs Washington: 369.1
First Downs (L5) +10.8% more
Boise State: 23.7 vs Washington: 21.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +8.8% more
Boise State: 182.9 vs Washington: 166.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOIS Score 10.0 10
WASH Score 23.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.1 / 23.7 17.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 166.8 / 182.9 127.0 / 58.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 369.1 / 440.1 355.0 / 311.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 0.7 1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOIS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
WASH
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -11.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOIS Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
WASH
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -11.6
⚖️ Over/Under
BOIS
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +0.5
WASH
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WASH
BOIS
WASH
BOIS
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
TTL
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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