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TROY

TROYTROY

8-5  |  Road

13
FINAL
Tue, Dec 16 • 9:00 PM ET
Cramton Bowl
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE STATE

JAX STATEJXST

8-5  |  Home

17
Key Game
Evan Crenshaw
KEY GAME

Evan Crenshaw

#28 | Punter
@
Conor Donaghy
KEY GAME

Conor Donaghy

#87 | Punter
Player
Evan Crenshaw None-None
Conor Donaghy None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TROY
100%
📊
JAX STATE
0%
TROY --
JAX STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
26.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Jacksonville State)
TroyTROY (-3.5) 0 Jax StateJXST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Troy Cover

3.2%

Jax State Cover

96.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around JXST -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JXST)

TROY By 1-6 points

1.9%

TROY By 7-13 points

0.8%

JXST By 1-6 points

4.8%

JXST By 7-13 points

10.4%

AI Model Projected Score
0
TROY
26
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Simulated Score
21
TROY
24
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Jax State Win
0% Win Prob
A
Sim Jax State Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Jax State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
A
Sim Jax State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 26.0
A
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 16, 2025 TROY @ JXST 13 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +383.0% more
Jacksonville State: 246.5 vs Troy: 51.0
Total Yards (L5) +41.8% more
Jacksonville State: 410.8 vs Troy: 289.7
First Downs (L5) +33.2% more
Jacksonville State: 21.2 vs Troy: 15.9
Turnovers (L5) +12.2% more
Troy: 1.2 vs Jacksonville State: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TROY Score 0.0 13
JXST Score 26.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.2 / 15.9 15.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 246.5 / 51.0 100.0 / 88.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.17
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 410.8 / 289.7 273.0 / 217.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.2 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TROY
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
JXST Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TROY
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
JXST Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
TROY
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +1.3
JXST
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JXST
TROY
JXST
TROY
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 6-0
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
50% 3-3
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
67% 4-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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