Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Ospreys @ Flyers UNF @ DAY

NORTH FLORIDA

OSPREYSUNF

2-8  |  Road

61
FINAL
Sat, Dec 13 • 7:00 PM ET
UD Arena
View Odds Details →

DAYTON

FLYERSDAY

8-3  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
OSPREYS
100%
📊
FLYERS
0%
OSPREYS --
FLYERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
182.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
DAYTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Dayton)
OspreysUNF (-3.5) 0 FlyersDAY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ospreys Cover

3.6%

Flyers Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAY -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAY)

UNF By 1-7 points

2.7%

UNF By 8-14 points

0.5%

DAY By 1-7 points

10.7%

DAY By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
82
NORTH FLORIDA
100
DAYTON
Simulated Score
62
NORTH FLORIDA
78
DAYTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Flyers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flyers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Flyers (+30.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Flyers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o159.5 Loss
Proj Total: 182.0
D
Sim u159.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 13, 2025 UNF @ DAY 61 - 84
Dec 30, 2019 UNF @ DAY 59 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +97.9% more
Dayton: 3.8 vs North Florida: 1.9
Steals (L5) +75.8% more
Dayton: 10.4 vs North Florida: 5.9
Field Goal % (L5) +2.6%
Dayton: 45.3% vs North Florida: 42.7%
Turnovers (L5) +16.5% more
North Florida: 14.6 vs Dayton: 12.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNF Score 82.0 61
DAY Score 100.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.6 / 34.2 28.0 / 28.0
Assists 14.3 / 14.8 18.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.8 / 1.9 8.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 42.7 52.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 69.7 / 76.1 47.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 30.1 / 30.3 43.0 / 37.0
Steals 10.4 / 5.9 11.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.2 / 14.6 9.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNF
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: +1.1
DAY Advantage
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNF Advantage
17-12-0 (58.6%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: +1.1
DAY
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UNF
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +3.5
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAY
UNF
DAY
UNF
ML
65% 24-13
69% 22-10
64% 23-13
66% 21-11
ATS
68% 25-12
69% 22-10
64% 23-13
66% 21-11
TTL
57% 21-16
66% 21-11
100% 36-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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