ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
TOMMIESSTMN
9-4 | Road
80
UNC ASHEVILLE
BULLDOGSUNCA
4-7 | Home
59
AI Model Win Probability
TOMMIES
100%
BULLDOGS
0%
TOMMIES
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
UNC ASHEVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (UNC Asheville)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNCA -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCA)
STMN By 1-7 points
15.3%
STMN By 8-14 points
5.8%
UNCA By 1-7 points
26.2%
UNCA By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Thomas-Minnesota
73
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
UNC Asheville
80
UNC ASHEVILLE
Simulated Score
St. Thomas-Minnesota
72
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
UNC Asheville
75
UNC ASHEVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs (+3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 13, 2025
STMN @ UNCA
80 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+37.0% more
UNC Asheville: 12.7
vs
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 9.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+10.6%
UNC Asheville: 42.2%
vs
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 31.6%
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.5%
UNC Asheville: 74.1%
vs
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 67.6%
Steals (L5)
+42.6% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 8.7
vs
UNC Asheville: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STMN Score
73.0
80
UNCA Score
80.0
59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
42.2 / 31.6
29.0 / 50.0
Assists
14.3 / 16.1
9.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.0 / 3.3
0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
46.3 / 50.9
43.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
74.1 / 67.6
62.0 / 54.0
Rebounding
31.9 / 37.1
32.0 / 32.0
Steals
5.0 / 8.7
2.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
12.7 / 9.3
16.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STMN
Advantage
24-10-0
(70.6%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
UNCA
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STMN
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.2
ATS +/-: +0.8
UNCA
Advantage
15-14-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
STMN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: -0.3
UNCA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: -2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCA
STMN
UNCA
STMN
ML
53%
16-14
64%
21-12
63%
19-11
64%
21-12
ATS
57%
17-13
70%
23-10
63%
19-11
64%
21-12
TTL
60%
18-12
61%
20-13
100%
30-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
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