MERCYHURST
LAKERSMERC
4-7 | Road
47
DAVIDSON
WILDCATSDAV
8-2 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
WILDCATS
0%
LAKERS
--
WILDCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
DAVIDSON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Davidson)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAV -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAV)
MERC By 1-7 points
0.5%
MERC By 8-14 points
0.1%
DAV By 1-7 points
3.3%
DAV By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Mercyhurst
61
MERCYHURST
Davidson
86
DAVIDSON
Simulated Score
Mercyhurst
60
MERCYHURST
Davidson
78
DAVIDSON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wildcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats (-12.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim
Wildcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o132.5
Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim
u132.5
Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 13, 2025
MERC @ DAV
47 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+16.9%
Davidson: 61.0%
vs
Mercyhurst: 44.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.5%
Davidson: 36.1%
vs
Mercyhurst: 34.5%
Blocks (L5)
+35.4% more
Mercyhurst: 4.6
vs
Davidson: 3.0
Assists (L5)
+21.5% more
Mercyhurst: 15.8
vs
Davidson: 12.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MERC Score
61.0
47
DAV Score
86.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.1 / 34.5
50.0 / 31.0
Assists
12.4 / 15.8
17.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.0 / 4.6
0.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.1 / 45.9
61.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
61.0 / 44.1
65.0 / 44.0
Rebounding
31.6 / 33.5
39.0 / 17.0
Steals
7.2 / 8.9
7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
9.3 / 9.8
9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MERC
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
DAV
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 4.1
ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MERC
Advantage
21-11-0
(65.6%)
Margin: 2.0
ATS +/-: +2.4
DAV
13-17-2
(43.3%)
Margin: 4.1
ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MERC
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.7
DAV
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAV
MERC
DAV
MERC
ML
64%
21-12
59%
20-14
58%
19-14
79%
26-7
ATS
48%
16-17
62%
21-13
58%
19-14
79%
26-7
TTL
52%
17-16
53%
18-16
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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