PEPPERDINE
WAVESPEPP
4-7 | Road
70
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
ROADRUNNERSCSUB
4-8 | Home
62
AI Model Win Probability
WAVES
100%
ROADRUNNERS
0%
WAVES
--
ROADRUNNERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Cal State Bakersfield)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CSUB -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUB)
PEPP By 1-7 points
0.0%
PEPP By 8-14 points
0.0%
CSUB By 1-7 points
0.3%
CSUB By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Pepperdine
56
PEPPERDINE
Cal State Bakersfield
91
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Simulated Score
Pepperdine
68
PEPPERDINE
Cal State Bakersfield
73
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Roadrunners
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Roadrunners
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Roadrunners (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -35.0
D
Sim
Roadrunners (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 13, 2025
PEPP @ CSUB
70 - 62
Dec 23, 2020
CSUB @ PEPP
79 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+163.4% more
Cal State Bakersfield: 5.3
vs
Pepperdine: 2.0
Steals (L5)
+99.3% more
Cal State Bakersfield: 8.1
vs
Pepperdine: 4.1
Turnovers (L5)
+23.9% more
Cal State Bakersfield: 15.2
vs
Pepperdine: 12.3
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.8%
Cal State Bakersfield: 41.7%
vs
Pepperdine: 37.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PEPP Score
56.0
70
CSUB Score
91.0
62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.2 / 28.5
17.0 / 33.0
Assists
9.6 / 12.5
4.0 / 12.0
Blocks
5.3 / 2.0
11.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
41.7 / 37.9
30.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
77.3 / 81.7
96.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
33.2 / 32.5
38.0 / 36.0
Steals
8.1 / 4.1
9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
15.2 / 12.3
15.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PEPP
Advantage
9-23-0
(28.1%)
Margin: -7.3
ATS +/-: -0.6
CSUB
8-24-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PEPP
Advantage
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -7.3
ATS +/-: -0.6
CSUB
11-18-1
(37.9%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
PEPP
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +2.4
CSUB
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSUB
PEPP
CSUB
PEPP
ML
55%
17-14
62%
20-12
71%
22-9
69%
22-10
ATS
61%
19-12
56%
18-14
71%
22-9
69%
22-10
TTL
58%
18-13
50%
16-16
100%
31-0
100%
32-0