DUQUESNE
DUKESDUQ
6-5 | Road
75
NEVADA
WOLF PACKNEV
8-3 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
DUKES
100%
WOLF PACK
0%
DUKES
--
WOLF PACK
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
110.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
NEVADA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Nevada)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NEV -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEV)
DUQ By 1-7 points
16.9%
DUQ By 8-14 points
6.8%
NEV By 1-7 points
26.8%
NEV By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Duquesne
52
DUQUESNE
Nevada
58
NEVADA
Simulated Score
Duquesne
76
DUQUESNE
Nevada
70
NEVADA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wolf Pack
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Dukes
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Wolf Pack (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Dukes (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u151.5
Loss
Proj Total: 110.0
D
Sim
u151.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 13, 2025
DUQ @ NEV
75 - 78
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+10.7%
Nevada: 43.0%
vs
Duquesne: 32.3%
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.2%
Nevada: 75.9%
vs
Duquesne: 67.7%
Turnovers (L5)
+45.9% more
Duquesne: 14.1
vs
Nevada: 7.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.6%
Duquesne: 47.4%
vs
Nevada: 43.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DUQ Score
52.0
75
NEV Score
58.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
43.0 / 32.3
40.0 / 33.0
Assists
13.7 / 14.7
12.0 / 16.0
Blocks
3.8 / 4.0
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
43.8 / 47.4
45.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
75.9 / 67.7
75.0 / 90.0
Rebounding
36.1 / 33.9
35.0 / 38.0
Steals
5.9 / 5.8
9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
7.6 / 14.1
8.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUQ
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -0.3
NEV
Advantage
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUQ
14-16-1
(46.7%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -0.3
NEV
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DUQ
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +1.6
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2%
Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEV
DUQ
NEV
DUQ
ML
62%
23-14
53%
17-15
73%
27-10
58%
18-13
ATS
73%
27-10
69%
22-10
73%
27-10
58%
18-13
TTL
49%
18-19
50%
16-16
100%
37-0
100%
31-0
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