IONA
GAELSIONA
8-4 | Road
64
ST. JOHN'S
RED STORMSJU
6-3 | Home
91
AI Model Win Probability
GAELS
100%
RED STORM
0%
GAELS
--
RED STORM
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
163.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-41.0
ST. JOHN'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +41.0 points (St. John's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SJU -41.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJU)
IONA By 1-7 points
0.0%
IONA By 8-14 points
0.0%
SJU By 1-7 points
0.0%
SJU By 8-14 points
0.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Iona
61
IONA
St. John's
102
ST. JOHN'S
Simulated Score
Iona
69
IONA
St. John's
81
ST. JOHN'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Storm
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Storm
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Storm (-27.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -41.0
D
Sim
Red Storm (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o161.5
Loss
Proj Total: 163.0
D
Sim
u161.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 13, 2025
IONA @ SJU
64 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+267.1% more
St. John's: 5.9
vs
Iona: 1.6
Turnovers (L5)
+45.8% more
St. John's: 14.5
vs
Iona: 10.0
Rebounding (L5)
+10.2% more
St. John's: 37.3
vs
Iona: 33.9
Assists (L5)
+17.6% more
Iona: 16.4
vs
St. John's: 13.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IONA Score
61.0
64
SJU Score
102.0
91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.4 / 36.8
38.0 / 26.0
Assists
13.5 / 16.4
12.0 / 6.0
Blocks
5.9 / 1.6
10.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
42.1 / 43.6
52.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
72.0 / 80.3
84.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
37.3 / 33.9
42.0 / 31.0
Steals
8.6 / 9.4
8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
14.5 / 10.0
17.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IONA
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: 0.0
SJU
Advantage
30-7-0
(81.1%)
Margin: 11.3
ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IONA
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: 0.0
SJU
Advantage
22-13-1
(62.9%)
Margin: 11.3
ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
IONA
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -1.6
SJU
13-23-0
O: 36.1% / U: 63.9%
Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJU
IONA
SJU
IONA
ML
62%
18-11
41%
13-19
62%
18-11
62%
20-12
ATS
66%
19-10
53%
17-15
62%
18-11
62%
20-12
TTL
59%
17-12
66%
21-11
100%
29-0
100%
32-0
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