Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Purple Aces @ Fighting Irish EVAN @ ND

EVANSVILLE

PURPLE ACESEVAN

4-6  |  Road

58
FINAL
Sat, Dec 13 • 2:00 PM ET
Purcell Pavilion
View Odds Details →

NOTRE DAME

FIGHTING IRISHND

8-3  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
PURPLE ACES
100%
📊
FIGHTING IRISH
0%
PURPLE ACES --
FIGHTING IRISH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
NOTRE DAME
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Notre Dame)
Purple AcesEVAN (-3.5) 0 Fighting IrishND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Purple Aces Cover

0.2%

Fighting Irish Cover

99.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ND -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ND)

EVAN By 1-7 points

0.1%

EVAN By 8-14 points

0.0%

ND By 1-7 points

1.4%

ND By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
56
EVANSVILLE
85
NOTRE DAME
Simulated Score
65
EVANSVILLE
78
NOTRE DAME
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Fighting Irish Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Fighting Irish Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Fighting Irish (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim Fighting Irish (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 13, 2025 EVAN @ ND 58 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +17.8% more
Notre Dame: 16.3 vs Evansville: 13.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +14.4%
Notre Dame: 45.3% vs Evansville: 30.9%
Rebounding (L5) +11.0% more
Notre Dame: 36.4 vs Evansville: 32.8
Field Goal % (L5) +6.3%
Notre Dame: 48.9% vs Evansville: 42.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EVAN Score 56.0 58
ND Score 85.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 45.3 / 30.9 56.0 / 33.0
Assists 16.3 / 13.8 9.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.9 / 6.6 0.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 48.9 / 42.5 47.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 67.5 / 67.9 71.0 / 62.0
Rebounding 36.4 / 32.8 38.0 / 32.0
Steals 3.0 / 4.6 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 14.0 12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EVAN
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
ND Advantage
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EVAN
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
ND Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
EVAN
16-13-1
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.3
ND
22-9-0
O: 71.0% / U: 29.0% Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ND
EVAN
ND
EVAN
ML
65% 20-11
56% 18-14
77% 24-7
62% 20-12
ATS
55% 17-14
66% 21-11
77% 24-7
62% 20-12
TTL
68% 21-10
62% 20-12
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Duke Demolishes Belmont by 40 in Preseason Blowout
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Drake Men's Basketball Enters Year 2 Under Eric Henderson with R…
kcci 0 minutes ago
Greg Gard: Wisconsin Basketball Has Evolved While Keeping Its Id…
newspub_live 3 minutes ago
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud, Admits Demanding $9,000…
bleacherreport 4 hours, 37 minutes ago
Shockers Stumble in Charity Exhibition Against Murray State, 93-…
thesunflower 4 hours, 45 minutes ago