OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
14-12-4 | Road
2
MINNESOTA
WILDMIN
17-9-5 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Vladimir Tarasenko
#91 | RW@
GOALTENDER
Jesper Wallstedt
#30 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Tarasenko | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Jesper Wallstedt | None-None | 2.00 | 0.944 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
2.00
--
Save %
0.944
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
0%
WILD
100%
SENATORS
--
WILD
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Ottawa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around OTT -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)
OTT By 1 goal
12.1%
OTT By 2-3 goals
37.2%
MIN By 1 goal
2.8%
MIN By 2-3 goals
1.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Ottawa
4
OTTAWA
Minnesota
1
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Ottawa
2
OTTAWA
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Senators
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wild
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Senators (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Goals: -3.0
D
Sim
Wild (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u5.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u5.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 4, 2026
MIN @ OTT
4 - 1
Dec 13, 2025
OTT @ MIN
2 - 3
Feb 1, 2025
MIN @ OTT
0 - 6
Dec 29, 2024
OTT @ MIN
3 - 1
Apr 2, 2024
OTT @ MIN
2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+42.9%
Ottawa: 48.8%
vs
Minnesota: 5.8%
Faceoff % (L5)
+8.9%
Ottawa: 53.7%
vs
Minnesota: 44.8%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+13.1% more
Minnesota: 17.2
vs
Ottawa: 15.2
Takeaways (L5)
+12.1% more
Minnesota: 5.8
vs
Ottawa: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OTT Score
4.0
2
MIN Score
1.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
17.2 / 15.2
19.0 / 7.0
Faceoff %
44.8 / 53.7
43.5 / 56.5
Hits
24.2 / 22.2
21.0 / 30.0
Power Play %
5.8 / 48.8
33.3 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
29.5 / 31.9
25.0 / 36.0
Takeaways
5.8 / 5.2
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
OTT
MIN
OTT
ML
67%
2-1
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
ATS
33%
1-2
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
TTL
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
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