TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
18-11-2 | Road
2
NEW YORK
ISLANDERSNYI
18-11-3 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Brandon Halverson
#33 | G@
GOALTENDER
Ilya Sorokin
#30 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Halverson | None-None | 0.00 | 0.000 | -- |
| Ilya Sorokin | None-None | 1.85 | 0.941 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
0.00 Ldr
GAA
1.85
0.000
Save %
Ldr 0.941
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
100%
ISLANDERS
0%
LIGHTNING
--
ISLANDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around NYI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYI)
TB By 1 goal
12.1%
TB By 2-3 goals
9.3%
NYI By 1 goal
19.7%
NYI By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
New York
4
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
2
TAMPA BAY
New York
3
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Islanders
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Islanders
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Islanders (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Islanders (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 13, 2025
TB @ NYI
2 - 3
Dec 6, 2025
NYI @ TB
2 - 0
Dec 2, 2025
TB @ NYI
1 - 2
Apr 1, 2025
TB @ NYI
4 - 1
Mar 29, 2025
NYI @ TB
3 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+52.8% more
New York: 5.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 3.7
Blocked Shots (L5)
+35.6% more
New York: 16.1
vs
Tampa Bay: 11.9
Hits (L5)
+15.7% more
New York: 21.2
vs
Tampa Bay: 18.4
Faceoff % (L5)
+5.6%
New York: 50.9%
vs
Tampa Bay: 45.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.0
2
NYI Score
4.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.1 / 11.9
20.0 / 10.0
Faceoff %
50.9 / 45.3
49.3 / 50.7
Hits
21.2 / 18.4
19.0 / 27.0
Power Play %
34.2 / 33.1
25.0 / 25.0
Shots on Goal
30.0 / 31.6
17.0 / 34.0
Takeaways
5.7 / 3.7
4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYI
TB
NYI
TB
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
ATS
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
TTL
67%
2-1-1
75%
3-1
100%
3-0-1
100%
4-0
Contextual Game News
Barkov Eyes Late November Return; Marchand Could Be Back Soon fo…
Islanders Shuffle Defense Pairings in Wake of Romanov's ACL Tear
Islanders' Blue Line Shake-Up: Three Defenders Who Must Elevate …
Steelers Bolster Secondary with Addition of Veteran Cornerback S…
Islanders Lock Up Czech Blueliner Vladimir Dravecky with Three-Y…