MASSACHUSETTS
MINUTEMENMASS
8-3 | Road
103
FLORIDA STATE
SEMINOLESFSU
5-5 | Home
95
AI Model Win Probability
MINUTEMEN
100%
SEMINOLES
0%
MINUTEMEN
--
SEMINOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Florida State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FSU -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)
MASS By 1-7 points
1.7%
MASS By 8-14 points
0.3%
FSU By 1-7 points
8.0%
FSU By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Massachusetts
58
MASSACHUSETTS
Florida State
78
FLORIDA STATE
Simulated Score
Massachusetts
64
MASSACHUSETTS
Florida State
71
FLORIDA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Seminoles
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Seminoles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Seminoles (-10.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim
Seminoles (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u161.5
Loss
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim
u161.5
Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 13, 2025
MASS @ FSU
103 - 95
Nov 24, 2024
FSU @ MASS
92 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+20.8% more
Florida State: 8.7
vs
Massachusetts: 7.2
Blocks (L5)
+11.9% more
Florida State: 4.5
vs
Massachusetts: 4.0
Assists (L5)
+26.5% more
Massachusetts: 17.0
vs
Florida State: 12.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.0%
Massachusetts: 46.0%
vs
Florida State: 39.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MASS Score
58.0
103
FSU Score
78.0
95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.7 / 35.6
29.0 / 55.0
Assists
12.5 / 17.0
19.0 / 23.0
Blocks
4.5 / 4.0
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
39.0 / 46.0
44.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
63.7 / 62.7
83.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
35.9 / 38.7
39.0 / 37.0
Steals
8.7 / 7.2
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
14.8 / 13.8
12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MASS
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -0.9
FSU
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MASS
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -0.9
FSU
Advantage
19-13-1
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.4
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MASS
20-12-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5%
Total +/-: +4.5
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
MASS
FSU
MASS
ML
64%
21-12
44%
14-18
59%
19-13
68%
21-10
ATS
55%
18-15
47%
15-17
59%
19-13
68%
21-10
TTL
48%
16-17
56%
18-14
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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