Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Monarchs @ Patriots ODU @ GMU

OLD DOMINION

MONARCHSODU

3-7  |  Road

61
FINAL
Sat, Dec 13 • 12:30 PM ET
EagleBank Arena
View Odds Details →

GEORGE MASON

PATRIOTSGMU

9-1  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
MONARCHS
100%
📊
PATRIOTS
0%
MONARCHS --
PATRIOTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
GEORGE MASON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (George Mason)
MonarchsODU (-3.5) 0 PatriotsGMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Monarchs Cover

18.4%

Patriots Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GMU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GMU)

ODU By 1-7 points

12.2%

ODU By 8-14 points

4.0%

GMU By 1-7 points

24.3%

GMU By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
60
OLD DOMINION
69
GEORGE MASON
Simulated Score
69
OLD DOMINION
73
GEORGE MASON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Patriots Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Patriots Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Patriots (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Patriots (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 13, 2025 ODU @ GMU 61 - 73
Dec 21, 2022 GMU @ ODU 77 - 78
Dec 4, 2021 ODU @ GMU 60 - 50
Nov 25, 2019 GMU @ ODU 60 - 53
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +18.5% more
George Mason: 12.4 vs Old Dominion: 10.5
Assists (L5) +17.4% more
George Mason: 14.3 vs Old Dominion: 12.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.3%
George Mason: 41.2% vs Old Dominion: 31.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +6.7%
George Mason: 48.3% vs Old Dominion: 41.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ODU Score 60.0 61
GMU Score 69.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.2 / 31.9 29.0 / 38.0
Assists 14.3 / 12.2 13.0 / 8.0
Blocks 2.2 / 3.1 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 48.3 / 41.7 41.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 77.8 / 77.7 74.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 35.2 / 34.9 36.0 / 35.0
Steals 5.0 / 5.0 9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 10.5 11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ODU
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +0.7
GMU Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ODU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +0.7
GMU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ODU
21-10-1
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3% Total +/-: +3.0
GMU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GMU
ODU
GMU
ODU
ML
55% 18-15
52% 17-16
73% 24-9
67% 22-11
ATS
55% 18-15
70% 23-10
73% 24-9
67% 22-11
TTL
58% 19-14
70% 23-10
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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