NORTHERN ILLINOIS
HUSKIESNIU
3-6 | Road
79
ELON
PHOENIXELON
5-4 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
HUSKIES
100%
PHOENIX
0%
HUSKIES
--
PHOENIX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
124.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
ELON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Elon)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ELON -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ELON)
NIU By 1-7 points
10.7%
NIU By 8-14 points
3.3%
ELON By 1-7 points
23.0%
ELON By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Northern Illinois
57
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Elon
67
ELON
Simulated Score
Northern Illinois
68
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Elon
72
ELON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phoenix
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phoenix
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phoenix (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Phoenix (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 124.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 13, 2025
NIU @ ELON
79 - 85
Nov 20, 2024
ELON @ NIU
75 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+134.2% more
Elon: 3.8
vs
Northern Illinois: 1.6
Assists (L5)
+77.5% more
Elon: 16.9
vs
Northern Illinois: 9.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+20.7%
Elon: 75.3%
vs
Northern Illinois: 54.6%
Steals (L5)
+17.3% more
Elon: 6.0
vs
Northern Illinois: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NIU Score
57.0
79
ELON Score
67.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.5 / 27.5
16.0 / 37.0
Assists
16.9 / 9.5
12.0 / 16.0
Blocks
3.8 / 1.6
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
47.2 / 36.9
52.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
75.3 / 54.6
73.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
39.8 / 37.5
34.0 / 33.0
Steals
6.0 / 5.1
7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.9 / 15.5
9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIU
9-21-0
(30.0%)
Margin: -8.3
ATS +/-: -3.1
ELON
Advantage
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIU
Advantage
13-15-0
(46.4%)
Margin: -8.3
ATS +/-: -3.1
ELON
11-19-0
(36.7%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NIU
8-20-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4%
Total +/-: -4.8
ELON
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ELON
NIU
ELON
NIU
ML
61%
19-12
67%
20-10
71%
22-9
66%
19-10
ATS
55%
17-14
63%
19-11
71%
22-9
66%
19-10
TTL
52%
16-15
67%
20-10
100%
31-0
100%
29-0
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