Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rockets @ Colonials TOL @ RMU

TOLEDO

ROCKETSTOL

5-4  |  Road

70
FINAL
Sat, Dec 13 • 1:00 PM ET
UPMC Events Center
View Odds Details →

ROBERT MORRIS

COLONIALSRMU

7-4  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
0%
📊
COLONIALS
100%
ROCKETS --
COLONIALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
TOLEDO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Toledo)
RocketsTOL (-3.5) 0 ColonialsRMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

94.5%

Colonials Cover

5.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TOL -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOL)

TOL By 1-7 points

13.7%

TOL By 8-14 points

24.3%

RMU By 1-7 points

4.0%

RMU By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
77
TOLEDO
61
ROBERT MORRIS
Simulated Score
68
TOLEDO
76
ROBERT MORRIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rockets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Colonials Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockets (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Colonials (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 13, 2025 TOL @ RMU 70 - 75
Nov 16, 2019 RMU @ TOL 56 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +38.8% more
Toledo: 4.1 vs Robert Morris: 2.5
Steals (L5) +24.7% more
Toledo: 7.0 vs Robert Morris: 5.3
Assists (L5) +15.1% more
Toledo: 18.6 vs Robert Morris: 15.8
Free Throw % (L5) +9.3%
Toledo: 78.5% vs Robert Morris: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOL Score 77.0 70
RMU Score 61.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.6 / 28.3 24.0 / 33.0
Assists 15.8 / 18.6 15.0 / 8.0
Blocks 2.5 / 4.1 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.4 / 50.2 45.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 69.1 / 78.5 64.0 / 87.0
Rebounding 38.2 / 40.5 46.0 / 35.0
Steals 5.3 / 7.0 1.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 10.5 / 11.4 9.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOL
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
RMU Advantage
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOL
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +2.0
RMU Advantage
19-11-1 (63.3%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TOL
13-19-0
O: 40.6% / U: 59.4% Total +/-: -0.8
RMU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RMU
TOL
RMU
TOL
ML
36% 12-21
48% 16-17
56% 18-14
61% 20-13
ATS
55% 18-15
48% 16-17
56% 18-14
61% 20-13
TTL
55% 18-15
64% 21-12
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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