Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Eagles @ Rebels USM @ MISS

SOUTHERN MISS

GOLDEN EAGLESUSM

6-4  |  Road

67
FINAL
Sat, Dec 13 • 3:00 PM ET
Mississippi Coast Coliseum
View Odds Details →

OLE MISS

REBELSMISS

5-4  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN EAGLES
0%
📊
REBELS
100%
GOLDEN EAGLES --
REBELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Southern Miss)
Golden EaglesUSM (-3.5) 0 RebelsMISS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Eagles Cover

91.9%

Rebels Cover

8.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around USM -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USM)

USM By 1-7 points

16.9%

USM By 8-14 points

26.2%

MISS By 1-7 points

5.8%

MISS By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
90
SOUTHERN MISS
76
OLE MISS
Simulated Score
67
SOUTHERN MISS
78
OLE MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Golden Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rebels Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Golden Eagles (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Rebels (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o138.5 Loss
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 13, 2025 USM @ MISS 67 - 71
Dec 14, 2024 USM @ MISS 46 - 77
Dec 23, 2023 USM @ MISS 72 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +9.8% more
Southern Miss: 15.3 vs Ole Miss: 13.8
Field Goal % (L5) +6.3%
Southern Miss: 47.0% vs Ole Miss: 40.8%
Blocks (L5) +16.8% more
Ole Miss: 5.8 vs Southern Miss: 5.0
Free Throw % (L5) +7.3%
Ole Miss: 79.8% vs Southern Miss: 72.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USM Score 90.0 67
MISS Score 76.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.6 / 24.9 29.0 / 25.0
Assists 12.9 / 13.5 10.0 / 10.0
Blocks 5.8 / 5.0 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 40.8 / 47.0 49.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 79.8 / 72.5 69.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 33.6 / 35.9 28.0 / 33.0
Steals 8.5 / 8.5 10.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 13.8 / 15.3 8.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USM Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
MISS
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USM Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
MISS
--
⚖️ Over/Under
USM
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +3.2
MISS
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MISS
USM
MISS
USM
ML
48% 16-17
53% 18-16
52% 17-16
73% 24-9
ATS
61% 20-13
59% 20-14
52% 17-16
74% 25-9
TTL
64% 21-12
68% 23-11
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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