Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Hurricane @ Aggies TLSA @ NMSU

TULSA

GOLDEN HURRICANETLSA

9-1  |  Road

83
FINAL
Sat, Dec 13 • 3:00 PM ET
Comerica Center
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO STATE

AGGIESNMSU

6-2  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN HURRICANE
0%
📊
AGGIES
100%
GOLDEN HURRICANE --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
TULSA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (Tulsa)
Golden HurricaneTLSA (-3.5) 0 AggiesNMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Hurricane Cover

100.0%

Aggies Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TLSA -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TLSA)

TLSA By 1-7 points

0.1%

TLSA By 8-14 points

0.5%

NMSU By 1-7 points

0.0%

NMSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
95
TULSA
55
NEW MEXICO STATE
Simulated Score
68
TULSA
72
NEW MEXICO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Golden Hurricane Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Golden Hurricane (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -40.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 13, 2025 TLSA @ NMSU 83 - 70
Dec 22, 2023 NMSU @ TLSA 59 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +24.2% more
Tulsa: 17.1 vs New Mexico State: 13.0
Steals (L5) +17.2% more
Tulsa: 8.4 vs New Mexico State: 6.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.9%
Tulsa: 42.4% vs New Mexico State: 30.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +10.4%
Tulsa: 51.0% vs New Mexico State: 40.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TLSA Score 95.0 83
NMSU Score 55.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.6 / 42.4 33.0 / 44.0
Assists 13.0 / 17.1 14.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.9 / 1.4 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 40.6 / 51.0 39.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 74.3 / 80.7 69.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 37.3 / 39.7 25.0 / 38.0
Steals 6.9 / 8.4 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 8.7 11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TLSA Advantage
30-8-0 (79.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +4.3
NMSU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TLSA Advantage
20-15-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +4.3
NMSU
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TLSA
24-12-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.8
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NMSU
TLSA
NMSU
TLSA
ML
61% 19-12
66% 25-13
67% 20-10
64% 23-13
ATS
65% 20-11
74% 28-10
67% 20-10
64% 23-13
TTL
45% 14-17
58% 22-16
100% 30-0
100% 36-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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