Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Seahawks @ Beacons UNCW @ VAL

UNC WILMINGTON

SEAHAWKSUNCW

9-1  |  Road

73
FINAL
Sat, Dec 13 • 3:00 PM ET
Athletics-Recreation Center
View Odds Details →

VALPARAISO

BEACONSVAL

6-3  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
SEAHAWKS
100%
📊
BEACONS
0%
SEAHAWKS --
BEACONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
120.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
VALPARAISO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Valparaiso)
SeahawksUNCW (-3.5) 0 BeaconsVAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Seahawks Cover

27.4%

Beacons Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VAL -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAL)

UNCW By 1-7 points

16.9%

UNCW By 8-14 points

6.8%

VAL By 1-7 points

26.8%

VAL By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
57
UNC WILMINGTON
63
VALPARAISO
Simulated Score
68
UNC WILMINGTON
72
VALPARAISO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Beacons Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Beacons Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Beacons (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Beacons (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 120.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 13, 2025 UNCW @ VAL 73 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +237.7% more
Valparaiso: 3.9 vs UNC Wilmington: 1.1
Steals (L5) +52.2% more
Valparaiso: 7.2 vs UNC Wilmington: 4.7
Assists (L5) +39.8% more
Valparaiso: 16.7 vs UNC Wilmington: 11.9
Turnovers (L5) +24.1% more
Valparaiso: 12.1 vs UNC Wilmington: 9.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNCW Score 57.0 73
VAL Score 63.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.0 / 35.8 24.0 / 27.0
Assists 16.7 / 11.9 10.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.9 / 1.1 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 47.7 / 45.1 35.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 67.3 / 72.6 75.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 40.6 / 39.0 39.0 / 46.0
Steals 7.2 / 4.7 3.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 9.8 6.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCW Advantage
27-7-0 (79.4%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
VAL
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCW
16-14-2 (53.3%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.2
VAL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCW
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: -2.3
VAL
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAL
UNCW
VAL
UNCW
ML
48% 16-17
64% 21-12
61% 20-13
52% 17-16
ATS
52% 17-16
58% 19-14
61% 20-13
52% 17-16
TTL
61% 20-13
61% 20-13
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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