WRIGHT STATE
RAIDERSWRST
5-5 | Road
74
MARSHALL
THUNDERING HERDMRSH
6-4 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
100%
THUNDERING HERD
0%
RAIDERS
--
THUNDERING HERD
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
MARSHALL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (Marshall)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MRSH -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRSH)
WRST By 1-7 points
0.0%
WRST By 8-14 points
0.0%
MRSH By 1-7 points
0.1%
MRSH By 8-14 points
0.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Wright State
52
WRIGHT STATE
Marshall
90
MARSHALL
Simulated Score
Wright State
73
WRIGHT STATE
Marshall
78
MARSHALL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Thundering Herd
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thundering Herd
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Thundering Herd (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
D
Sim
Thundering Herd (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 13, 2025
WRST @ MRSH
74 - 76
Dec 11, 2024
MRSH @ WRST
79 - 88
Nov 12, 2021
WRST @ MRSH
88 - 96
Dec 3, 2020
MRSH @ WRST
80 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+32.3% more
Marshall: 40.9
vs
Wright State: 30.9
Blocks (L5)
+31.5% more
Marshall: 6.2
vs
Wright State: 4.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.3%
Marshall: 76.7%
vs
Wright State: 67.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.5%
Marshall: 33.5%
vs
Wright State: 30.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WRST Score
52.0
74
MRSH Score
90.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.5 / 30.0
29.0 / 41.0
Assists
14.7 / 13.8
14.0 / 14.0
Blocks
6.2 / 4.7
12.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.3 / 50.9
49.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
76.7 / 67.4
81.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
40.9 / 30.9
38.0 / 37.0
Steals
4.3 / 9.8
3.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.1 / 11.0
11.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WRST
Advantage
23-12-0
(65.7%)
Margin: 6.8
ATS +/-: +2.0
MRSH
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WRST
Advantage
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 6.8
ATS +/-: +2.0
MRSH
10-20-1
(33.3%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
WRST
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5%
Total +/-: +3.3
MRSH
19-11-1
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7%
Total +/-: +4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRSH
WRST
MRSH
WRST
ML
70%
21-9
37%
13-22
62%
18-11
63%
22-13
ATS
70%
21-9
46%
16-19
62%
18-11
63%
22-13
TTL
50%
15-15
63%
22-13
100%
29-0
100%
35-0
Contextual Game News
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