Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Purple Eagles @ Bears NIA @ MORG

NIAGARA

PURPLE EAGLESNIA

2-7  |  Road

73
FINAL
Sat, Dec 13 • 4:00 PM ET
Hill Field House
View Odds Details →

MORGAN STATE

BEARSMORG

1-8  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
PURPLE EAGLES
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
PURPLE EAGLES --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
121.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
MORGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Morgan State)
Purple EaglesNIA (-3.5) 0 BearsMORG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Purple Eagles Cover

6.7%

Bears Cover

93.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MORG -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MORG)

NIA By 1-7 points

4.8%

NIA By 8-14 points

1.1%

MORG By 1-7 points

15.3%

MORG By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
53
NIAGARA
68
MORGAN STATE
Simulated Score
68
NIAGARA
72
MORGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 13, 2025 NIA @ MORG 73 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +17.9% more
Morgan State: 32.9 vs Niagara: 27.9
Free Throw % (L5) +6.9%
Morgan State: 77.6% vs Niagara: 70.7%
Blocks (L5) +11.2% more
Niagara: 3.0 vs Morgan State: 2.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.1%
Niagara: 23.9% vs Morgan State: 21.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NIA Score 53.0 73
MORG Score 68.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 21.8 / 23.9 45.0 / 33.0
Assists 11.1 / 10.6 13.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.7 / 3.0 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 35.5 / 37.4 61.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 77.6 / 70.7 86.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 32.9 / 27.9 35.0 / 12.0
Steals 5.3 / 5.0 4.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 14.1 / 13.5 23.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIA
8-22-0 (26.7%)
Margin: -7.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
MORG Advantage
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIA
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: -7.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
MORG Advantage
14-12-1 (53.8%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NIA
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.7
MORG
16-11-0
O: 59.3% / U: 40.7% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MORG
NIA
MORG
NIA
ML
50% 14-14
55% 16-13
58% 14-10
72% 21-8
ATS
50% 14-14
69% 20-9
58% 14-10
72% 21-8
TTL
50% 14-14
55% 16-13
100% 24-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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