MURRAY STATE
RACERSMUR
7-3 | Road
115
AKRON
ZIPSAKR
8-2 | Home
100
AI Model Win Probability
RACERS
100%
ZIPS
0%
RACERS
--
ZIPS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
AKRON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Akron)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around AKR -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AKR)
MUR By 1-7 points
0.3%
MUR By 8-14 points
0.0%
AKR By 1-7 points
2.2%
AKR By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Murray State
63
MURRAY STATE
Akron
90
AKRON
Simulated Score
Murray State
71
MURRAY STATE
Akron
76
AKRON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Zips
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Zips
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Zips (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim
Zips (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 13, 2025
MUR @ AKR
115 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+28.1% more
Akron: 20.4
vs
Murray State: 15.9
Steals (L5)
+27.0% more
Akron: 5.8
vs
Murray State: 4.6
Blocks (L5)
+11.0% more
Akron: 3.2
vs
Murray State: 2.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.0%
Akron: 43.8%
vs
Murray State: 35.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MUR Score
63.0
115
AKR Score
90.0
100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
43.8 / 35.8
39.0 / 56.0
Assists
20.4 / 15.9
19.0 / 23.0
Blocks
3.2 / 2.9
3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
54.9 / 48.0
49.0 / 58.0
Free Throw %
72.7 / 77.0
76.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
38.5 / 40.3
34.0 / 42.0
Steals
5.8 / 4.6
6.0 / 1.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 12.4
8.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MUR
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
AKR
Advantage
29-6-0
(82.9%)
Margin: 13.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MUR
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
AKR
Advantage
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: 13.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4%
Total +/-: +4.8
AKR
15-17-1
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AKR
MUR
AKR
MUR
ML
71%
24-10
58%
19-14
65%
22-12
61%
20-13
ATS
76%
26-8
52%
17-16
65%
22-12
61%
20-13
TTL
59%
20-14
70%
23-10
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
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