SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SALUKISSIU
6-5 | Road
84
RICHMOND
SPIDERSRICH
9-1 | Home
93
AI Model Win Probability
SALUKIS
0%
SPIDERS
100%
SALUKIS
--
SPIDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
121.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Southern Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SIU -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SIU)
SIU By 1-7 points
24.3%
SIU By 8-14 points
26.8%
RICH By 1-7 points
12.2%
RICH By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Southern Illinois
65
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Richmond
56
RICHMOND
Simulated Score
Southern Illinois
68
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Richmond
73
RICHMOND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Salukis
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spiders
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Salukis (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Spiders (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 13, 2025
SIU @ RICH
84 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+38.9% more
Southern Illinois: 9.2
vs
Richmond: 5.6
Turnovers (L5)
+17.6% more
Southern Illinois: 12.6
vs
Richmond: 10.3
Blocks (L5)
+8.4% more
Southern Illinois: 4.0
vs
Richmond: 3.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.0%
Southern Illinois: 51.3%
vs
Richmond: 47.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SIU Score
65.0
84
RICH Score
56.0
93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.8 / 34.0
35.0 / 31.0
Assists
15.1 / 16.3
14.0 / 14.0
Blocks
3.7 / 4.0
5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
47.3 / 51.3
51.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
71.1 / 68.1
74.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
39.3 / 36.9
29.0 / 48.0
Steals
5.6 / 9.2
10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.3 / 12.6
13.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SIU
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.4
ATS +/-: +1.7
RICH
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SIU
Advantage
16-15-0
(51.6%)
Margin: 3.4
ATS +/-: +1.7
RICH
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SIU
9-22-0
O: 29.0% / U: 71.0%
Total +/-: -5.5
RICH
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RICH
SIU
RICH
SIU
ML
53%
17-15
53%
17-15
56%
18-14
47%
15-17
ATS
44%
14-18
56%
18-14
56%
18-14
47%
15-17
TTL
56%
18-14
53%
17-15
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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