Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Utes MSST @ UTAH

MISSISSIPPI STATE

BULLDOGSMSST

4-5  |  Road

82
FINAL
Sat, Dec 13 • 10:00 PM ET
Delta Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH

UTESUTAH

7-3  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
UTES
0%
BULLDOGS --
UTES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
112.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (Utah)
BulldogsMSST (-3.5) 0 UtesUTAH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

0.0%

Utes Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTAH -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)

MSST By 1-7 points

0.0%

MSST By 8-14 points

0.0%

UTAH By 1-7 points

0.1%

UTAH By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
36
MISSISSIPPI STATE
76
UTAH
Simulated Score
68
MISSISSIPPI STATE
72
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Utes Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Utes Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Utes (-2) Loss
Proj Spread: -40.0
D
Sim Utes (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.0 Loss
Proj Total: 112.0
D
Sim u153.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 13, 2025 MSST @ UTAH 82 - 74
Nov 17, 2024 UTAH @ MSST 73 - 78
Nov 23, 2022 UTAH @ MSST 49 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +27.3% more
Utah: 14.5 vs Mississippi State: 11.4
Free Throw % (L5) +19.7%
Utah: 74.9% vs Mississippi State: 55.2%
Turnovers (L5) +17.7% more
Utah: 11.1 vs Mississippi State: 9.4
Steals (L5) +14.7% more
Utah: 6.7 vs Mississippi State: 5.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSST Score 36.0 82
UTAH Score 76.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.5 / 29.5 35.0 / 40.0
Assists 14.5 / 11.4 11.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.2 / 4.3 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.0 / 43.3 45.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 74.9 / 55.2 75.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 32.4 / 41.3 33.0 / 32.0
Steals 6.7 / 5.9 6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 9.4 14.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSST Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
UTAH
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.8 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
UTAH Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -4.8 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.1
UTAH
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
MSST
UTAH
MSST
ML
56% 18-14
66% 21-11
67% 20-10
55% 17-14
ATS
56% 18-14
56% 18-14
67% 20-10
55% 17-14
TTL
41% 13-19
59% 19-13
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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