PROVIDENCE
FRIARSPROV
7-5 | Road
110
BUTLER
BULLDOGSBUT
8-2 | Home
113
AI Model Win Probability
FRIARS
100%
BULLDOGS
0%
FRIARS
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
130.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
BUTLER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Butler)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BUT -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUT)
PROV By 1-7 points
8.0%
PROV By 8-14 points
2.2%
BUT By 1-7 points
20.1%
BUT By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Providence
59
PROVIDENCE
Butler
71
BUTLER
Simulated Score
Providence
68
PROVIDENCE
Butler
70
BUTLER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs (-3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u165.5
Loss
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Sim
u165.5
Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
PROV @ BUT
91 - 81
Feb 4, 2026
BUT @ PROV
87 - 97
Dec 13, 2025
PROV @ BUT
110 - 113
Mar 12, 2025
BUT @ PROV
75 - 69
Feb 8, 2025
PROV @ BUT
81 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+18.2% more
Providence: 5.1
vs
Butler: 4.2
Turnovers (L5)
+18.1% more
Providence: 12.7
vs
Butler: 10.4
Steals (L5)
+15.9% more
Providence: 8.0
vs
Butler: 6.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+14.8%
Providence: 80.1%
vs
Butler: 65.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PROV Score
59.0
110
BUT Score
71.0
113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.5 / 39.4
36.0 / 38.0
Assists
15.4 / 17.8
23.0 / 21.0
Blocks
4.2 / 5.1
5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
49.3 / 50.0
47.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
65.3 / 80.1
71.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
37.1 / 38.3
50.0 / 45.0
Steals
6.8 / 8.0
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.4 / 12.7
7.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PROV
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
BUT
Advantage
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PROV
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
BUT
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 1.8
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
PROV
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +8.5
BUT
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUT
PROV
BUT
PROV
ML
62%
20-12
59%
19-13
65%
20-11
67%
20-10
ATS
56%
18-14
50%
16-16
65%
20-11
67%
20-10
TTL
50%
16-16
44%
14-18
100%
31-0
100%
30-0
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