Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Panthers @ Wildcats PITT @ VILL

PITTSBURGH

PANTHERSPITT

5-5  |  Road

61
FINAL
Sat, Dec 13 • 4:30 PM ET
Finneran Pavilion
View Odds Details →

VILLANOVA

WILDCATSVILL

7-2  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
PANTHERS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
173.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
VILLANOVA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Villanova)
PanthersPITT (-3.5) 0 WildcatsVILL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

4.5%

Wildcats Cover

95.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VILL -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VILL)

PITT By 1-7 points

3.3%

PITT By 8-14 points

0.6%

VILL By 1-7 points

12.2%

VILL By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
78
PITTSBURGH
95
VILLANOVA
Simulated Score
71
PITTSBURGH
74
VILLANOVA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 173.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 13, 2025 PITT @ VILL 61 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +51.8% more
Villanova: 8.5 vs Pittsburgh: 5.6
Rebounding (L5) +15.3% more
Villanova: 36.6 vs Pittsburgh: 31.7
Turnovers (L5) +11.4% more
Villanova: 11.6 vs Pittsburgh: 10.4
Assists (L5) +9.6% more
Villanova: 13.3 vs Pittsburgh: 12.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PITT Score 78.0 61
VILL Score 95.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.4 / 34.5 41.0 / 23.0
Assists 13.3 / 12.2 20.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.4 / 3.2 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 44.9 / 44.5 52.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 67.1 / 72.6 75.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 36.6 / 31.7 27.0 / 36.0
Steals 8.5 / 5.6 4.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 10.4 3.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PITT
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
VILL Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PITT
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
VILL Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
PITT
17-15-1
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.2
VILL
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VILL
PITT
VILL
PITT
ML
44% 14-18
58% 19-14
72% 23-9
45% 15-18
ATS
56% 18-14
64% 21-12
72% 23-9
45% 15-18
TTL
41% 13-19
61% 20-13
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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