Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Greyhounds MSM @ L-MD

MOUNT ST. MARY'S

MOUNTAINEERSMSM

2-8  |  Road

81
FINAL
Sat, Dec 13 • 6:00 PM ET
Reitz Arena
View Odds Details →

LOYOLA MARYLAND

GREYHOUNDSL-MD

4-7  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
📊
GREYHOUNDS
0%
MOUNTAINEERS --
GREYHOUNDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
121.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
LOYOLA MARYLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Loyola Maryland)
MountaineersMSM (-3.5) 0 GreyhoundsL-MD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

24.2%

Greyhounds Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around L-MD -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (L-MD)

MSM By 1-7 points

15.3%

MSM By 8-14 points

5.8%

L-MD By 1-7 points

26.2%

L-MD By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
57
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
64
LOYOLA MARYLAND
Simulated Score
68
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
71
LOYOLA MARYLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Greyhounds Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Greyhounds Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Greyhounds (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Greyhounds (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 13, 2025 MSM @ L-MD 81 - 73
Dec 14, 2024 L-MD @ MSM 77 - 69
Dec 9, 2023 MSM @ L-MD 77 - 64
Dec 10, 2022 L-MD @ MSM 34 - 51
Dec 4, 2021 MSM @ L-MD 55 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +14.6% more
Loyola Maryland: 3.7 vs Mount St. Mary's: 3.2
Assists (L5) +11.7% more
Loyola Maryland: 16.1 vs Mount St. Mary's: 14.4
Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
Loyola Maryland: 45.9% vs Mount St. Mary's: 42.6%
Steals (L5) +18.3% more
Mount St. Mary's: 6.9 vs Loyola Maryland: 5.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSM Score 57.0 81
L-MD Score 64.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.9 / 32.0 33.0 / 36.0
Assists 16.1 / 14.4 18.0 / 18.0
Blocks 3.7 / 3.2 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 45.9 / 42.6 37.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 58.5 / 63.6 71.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 35.7 / 34.4 28.0 / 43.0
Steals 5.6 / 6.9 12.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.2 / 16.2 12.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSM Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
L-MD
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSM Advantage
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
L-MD
15-14-1 (51.7%)
Margin: -1.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.9
L-MD
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
L-MD
MSM
L-MD
MSM
ML
53% 17-15
53% 17-15
66% 21-11
61% 19-12
ATS
56% 18-14
62% 20-12
66% 21-11
61% 19-12
TTL
44% 14-18
81% 26-6
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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