MICHIGAN STATE
SPARTANSMSU
9-1 | Road
76
PENN STATE
NITTANY LIONSPSU
8-3 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
0%
NITTANY LIONS
100%
SPARTANS
--
NITTANY LIONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Michigan State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MSU -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)
MSU By 1-7 points
13.7%
MSU By 8-14 points
24.3%
PSU By 1-7 points
4.0%
PSU By 8-14 points
0.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Michigan State
75
MICHIGAN STATE
Penn State
59
PENN STATE
Simulated Score
Michigan State
68
MICHIGAN STATE
Penn State
74
PENN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spartans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nittany Lions
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spartans (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Nittany Lions (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 13, 2025
MSU @ PSU
76 - 72
Jan 15, 2025
PSU @ MSU
85 - 90
Feb 14, 2024
MSU @ PSU
80 - 72
Jan 4, 2024
PSU @ MSU
61 - 92
Dec 7, 2022
MSU @ PSU
67 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+59.4% more
Michigan State: 4.6
vs
Penn State: 1.9
Assists (L5)
+29.9% more
Michigan State: 17.3
vs
Penn State: 12.1
Rebounding (L5)
+27.9% more
Michigan State: 40.2
vs
Penn State: 29.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.7%
Michigan State: 76.2%
vs
Penn State: 73.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MSU Score
75.0
76
PSU Score
59.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.4 / 35.8
28.0 / 56.0
Assists
12.1 / 17.3
14.0 / 14.0
Blocks
1.9 / 4.6
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
49.8 / 43.6
42.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
73.4 / 76.2
89.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
29.0 / 40.2
27.0 / 40.0
Steals
8.8 / 5.4
10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.8 / 9.6
9.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSU
Advantage
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +1.5
PSU
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -5.7
ATS +/-: -3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSU
Advantage
17-16-2
(51.5%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +1.5
PSU
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -5.7
ATS +/-: -3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +1.5
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
MSU
PSU
MSU
ML
72%
23-9
71%
25-10
56%
18-14
61%
20-13
ATS
72%
23-9
71%
25-10
56%
18-14
61%
20-13
TTL
66%
21-11
49%
17-18
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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