Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Eagles @ Boilermakers MARQ @ PUR

MARQUETTE

GOLDEN EAGLESMARQ

5-5  |  Road

59
FINAL
Sat, Dec 13 • 2:00 PM ET
Mackey Arena
View Odds Details →

PURDUE

BOILERMAKERSPUR

9-1  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN EAGLES
100%
📊
BOILERMAKERS
0%
GOLDEN EAGLES --
BOILERMAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
167.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PURDUE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Purdue)
Golden EaglesMARQ (-3.5) 0 BoilermakersPUR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Eagles Cover

46.0%

Boilermakers Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PUR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PUR)

MARQ By 1-7 points

24.3%

MARQ By 8-14 points

13.7%

PUR By 1-7 points

26.2%

PUR By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
83
MARQUETTE
84
PURDUE
Simulated Score
75
MARQUETTE
78
PURDUE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Boilermakers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Boilermakers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Boilermakers (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Boilermakers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 167.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 13, 2025 MARQ @ PUR 59 - 79
Nov 19, 2024 PUR @ MARQ 58 - 76
Nov 22, 2023 PUR @ MARQ 78 - 75
Nov 15, 2022 MARQ @ PUR 70 - 75
Nov 13, 2019 PUR @ MARQ 55 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +77.4% more
Purdue: 3.9 vs Marquette: 2.2
Assists (L5) +43.8% more
Purdue: 20.3 vs Marquette: 14.1
Rebounding (L5) +10.6% more
Purdue: 39.9 vs Marquette: 36.1
Field Goal % (L5) +9.0%
Purdue: 50.1% vs Marquette: 41.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MARQ Score 83.0 59
PUR Score 84.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.1 / 31.0 30.0 / 26.0
Assists 20.3 / 14.1 20.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.9 / 2.2 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 50.1 / 41.1 54.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 68.2 / 65.6 80.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 39.9 / 36.1 38.0 / 29.0
Steals 5.9 / 8.8 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 10.2 14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MARQ
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
PUR Advantage
30-9-0 (76.9%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MARQ
12-19-1 (38.7%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
PUR Advantage
17-22-0 (43.6%)
Margin: 11.1 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MARQ
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.5
PUR
21-18-0
O: 53.8% / U: 46.2% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PUR
MARQ
PUR
MARQ
ML
67% 26-13
59% 19-13
66% 25-13
62% 20-12
ATS
64% 25-14
53% 17-15
66% 25-13
62% 20-12
TTL
51% 20-19
50% 16-16
100% 38-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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