Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Buffaloes @ Bulldogs ARBA @ AAMU

ARKANSAS BAPTIST

BUFFALOESARBA

0-0  |  Road

59
FINAL
Sat, Dec 13 • 5:00 PM ET
Event Center
View Odds Details →

ALABAMA A&M

BULLDOGSAAMU

5-4  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
BUFFALOES
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
BUFFALOES --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
121.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
ALABAMA A&M
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Alabama A&M)
BuffaloesARBA (-3.5) 0 BulldogsAAMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buffaloes Cover

0.6%

Bulldogs Cover

99.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around AAMU -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AAMU)

ARBA By 1-7 points

0.5%

ARBA By 8-14 points

0.1%

AAMU By 1-7 points

3.3%

AAMU By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
48
ARKANSAS BAPTIST
73
ALABAMA A&M
Simulated Score
55
ARKANSAS BAPTIST
88
ALABAMA A&M
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u177.5 Win
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Sim u177.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 13, 2025 ARBA @ AAMU 59 - 67
Nov 11, 2024 ARBA @ AAMU 57 - 103
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +15.1%
Alabama A&M: 36.1% vs Arkansas Baptist: 21.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.0%
Alabama A&M: 39.4% vs Arkansas Baptist: 37.4%
Steals (L5) +53.0% more
Arkansas Baptist: 9.3 vs Alabama A&M: 4.4
Turnovers (L5) +21.3% more
Arkansas Baptist: 15.9 vs Alabama A&M: 12.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARBA Score 48.0 59
AAMU Score 73.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.1 / 21.0 29.0 / 25.0
Assists 7.6 / 7.4 14.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.3 / 3.5 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 39.4 / 37.4 40.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 71.6 / 78.7 66.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 34.7 / 32.5 43.0 / 30.0
Steals 4.4 / 9.3 5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 15.9 16.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARBA
--
AAMU Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARBA
--
AAMU Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ARBA
--
AAMU
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AAMU
ARBA
AAMU
ARBA
ML
55% 16-13
67% 2-1
67% 16-8
100% 3-0
ATS
55% 16-13
100% 3-0
67% 16-8
100% 3-0
TTL
66% 19-10
67% 2-1
100% 24-0
100% 3-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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