MONTANA STATE
BOBCATSMTST
4-6 | Road
57
OREGON STATE
BEAVERSORST
5-5 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
0%
BEAVERS
100%
BOBCATS
--
BEAVERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-36.0
MONTANA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +36.0 points (Montana State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MTST -36.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTST)
MTST By 1-7 points
0.2%
MTST By 8-14 points
1.4%
ORST By 1-7 points
0.0%
ORST By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Montana State
86
MONTANA STATE
Oregon State
50
OREGON STATE
Simulated Score
Montana State
72
MONTANA STATE
Oregon State
75
OREGON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bobcats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Beavers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bobcats (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -36.0
D
Sim
Beavers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 13, 2025
MTST @ ORST
57 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+19.9% more
Montana State: 7.9
vs
Oregon State: 6.3
Blocks (L5)
+177.3% more
Oregon State: 7.5
vs
Montana State: 2.7
Assists (L5)
+24.5% more
Oregon State: 14.7
vs
Montana State: 11.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.3%
Oregon State: 81.4%
vs
Montana State: 74.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MTST Score
86.0
57
ORST Score
50.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.1 / 34.1
30.0 / 24.0
Assists
14.7 / 11.8
11.0 / 9.0
Blocks
7.5 / 2.7
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
47.6 / 44.7
42.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
81.4 / 74.1
82.0 / 60.0
Rebounding
32.5 / 34.2
33.0 / 34.0
Steals
6.3 / 7.9
7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.3 / 11.6
11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTST
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 6.5
ATS +/-: +1.9
ORST
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTST
Advantage
16-12-1
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.5
ATS +/-: +1.9
ORST
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MTST
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.5
ORST
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4%
Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORST
MTST
ORST
MTST
ML
45%
15-18
52%
16-15
59%
19-13
67%
20-10
ATS
48%
16-17
52%
16-15
59%
19-13
67%
20-10
TTL
55%
18-15
65%
20-11
100%
32-0
100%
30-0
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