Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lumberjacks @ Toreros NAU @ USD

NORTHERN ARIZONA

LUMBERJACKSNAU

4-6  |  Road

69
FINAL
Sat, Dec 13 • 6:00 PM ET
Jenny Craig Pavilion
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

TOREROSUSD

4-6  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
LUMBERJACKS
0%
📊
TOREROS
100%
LUMBERJACKS --
TOREROS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
NORTHERN ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Northern Arizona)
LumberjacksNAU (-3.5) 0 TorerosUSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lumberjacks Cover

69.1%

Toreros Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NAU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NAU)

NAU By 1-7 points

27.2%

NAU By 8-14 points

23.0%

USD By 1-7 points

18.6%

USD By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
69
NORTHERN ARIZONA
64
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
69
NORTHERN ARIZONA
78
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lumberjacks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Toreros Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lumberjacks (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Toreros (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 13, 2025 NAU @ USD 69 - 78
Dec 18, 2021 USD @ NAU 69 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +32.9% more
Northern Arizona: 4.0 vs San Diego: 2.7
Assists (L5) +30.5% more
San Diego: 14.0 vs Northern Arizona: 10.7
Free Throw % (L5) +3.8%
San Diego: 78.5% vs Northern Arizona: 74.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NAU Score 69.0 69
USD Score 64.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.5 / 29.7 43.0 / 35.0
Assists 14.0 / 10.7 16.0 / 17.0
Blocks 2.7 / 4.0 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 40.9 / 42.3 50.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 78.5 / 74.7 75.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 30.4 / 31.5 28.0 / 28.0
Steals 8.9 / 9.1 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 12.4 14.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAU
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -5.1 ATS +/-: -2.7
USD Advantage
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAU
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: -5.1 ATS +/-: -2.7
USD Advantage
16-15-0 (51.6%)
Margin: -3.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NAU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -2.3
USD
12-17-2
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USD
NAU
USD
NAU
ML
58% 19-14
62% 20-12
70% 23-10
81% 26-6
ATS
55% 18-15
62% 20-12
70% 23-10
81% 26-6
TTL
61% 20-13
66% 21-11
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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