CENTRAL ARKANSAS
BEARSCARK
4-6 | Road
72
VANDERBILT
COMMODORESVAN
9-0 | Home
83
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
COMMODORES
0%
BEARS
--
COMMODORES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
VANDERBILT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Vanderbilt)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VAN -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)
CARK By 1-7 points
18.6%
CARK By 8-14 points
8.0%
VAN By 1-7 points
27.2%
VAN By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Central Arkansas
68
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Vanderbilt
73
VANDERBILT
Simulated Score
Central Arkansas
65
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
Vanderbilt
78
VANDERBILT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Commodores
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Commodores
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Commodores (-4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Commodores (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 13, 2025
CARK @ VAN
72 - 83
Nov 17, 2023
CARK @ VAN
71 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+436.4% more
Vanderbilt: 5.9
vs
Central Arkansas: 1.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+21.6%
Vanderbilt: 78.3%
vs
Central Arkansas: 56.7%
Assists (L5)
+13.1% more
Vanderbilt: 19.3
vs
Central Arkansas: 17.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.4%
Vanderbilt: 52.9%
vs
Central Arkansas: 45.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CARK Score
68.0
72
VAN Score
73.0
83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.8 / 31.8
29.0 / 28.0
Assists
19.3 / 17.0
19.0 / 12.0
Blocks
5.9 / 1.1
1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
52.9 / 45.5
42.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
78.3 / 56.7
82.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
35.9 / 36.1
46.0 / 36.0
Steals
8.6 / 9.6
9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
9.0 / 12.8
13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CARK
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +5.7
VAN
Advantage
27-9-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 10.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CARK
Advantage
19-10-3
(65.5%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +5.7
VAN
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 10.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
CARK
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +3.9
VAN
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
CARK
VAN
CARK
ML
69%
25-11
67%
22-11
56%
18-14
70%
23-10
ATS
78%
28-8
61%
20-13
56%
18-14
70%
23-10
TTL
58%
21-15
50%
16-16-1
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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