Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Crimson Tide ARIZ @ ALA

ARIZONA

WILDCATSARIZ

8-0  |  Road

96
FINAL
Sat, Dec 13 • 9:30 PM ET
Legacy Arena at BJCC
View Odds Details →

ALABAMA

CRIMSON TIDEALA

7-2  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
📊
CRIMSON TIDE
0%
WILDCATS --
CRIMSON TIDE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
77.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Alabama)
WildcatsARIZ (-3.5) 0 Crimson TideALA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

46.0%

Crimson Tide Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ALA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)

ARIZ By 1-7 points

24.3%

ARIZ By 8-14 points

13.7%

ALA By 1-7 points

26.2%

ALA By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
38
ARIZONA
39
ALABAMA
Simulated Score
75
ARIZONA
78
ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Crimson Tide Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Crimson Tide Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Crimson Tide (+4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Crimson Tide (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 77.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 13, 2025 ARIZ @ ALA 96 - 75
Dec 20, 2023 ALA @ ARIZ 74 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +84.3% more
Alabama: 7.4 vs Arizona: 4.0
Rebounding (L5) +10.4% more
Alabama: 46.9 vs Arizona: 42.5
Free Throw % (L5) +8.9%
Alabama: 78.5% vs Arizona: 69.6%
Turnovers (L5) +29.4% more
Arizona: 12.4 vs Alabama: 8.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARIZ Score 38.0 96
ALA Score 39.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.5 / 33.7 38.0 / 38.0
Assists 19.5 / 20.5 12.0 / 16.0
Blocks 7.4 / 4.0 15.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.5 / 55.6 45.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 78.5 / 69.6 72.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 46.9 / 42.5 32.0 / 52.0
Steals 8.8 / 8.5 2.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 8.7 / 12.4 15.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARIZ Advantage
36-3-0 (92.3%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
ALA
25-10-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARIZ Advantage
23-15-1 (60.5%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
ALA
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ARIZ
20-19-0
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: -1.4
ALA
17-16-1
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALA
ARIZ
ALA
ARIZ
ML
63% 22-13
67% 26-13
58% 19-14
68% 23-11
ATS
60% 21-14
74% 29-10
58% 19-14
68% 23-11
TTL
63% 22-13
56% 22-17
100% 33-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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