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MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE

HAWKSUMES

4-9  |  Road

79
FINAL
Fri, Dec 12 • 7:00 PM ET
Corbett Sports Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA A&T

AGGIESNCAT

4-4  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
100%
📊
AGGIES
0%
HAWKS --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (North Carolina A&T)
HawksUMES (-3.5) 0 AggiesNCAT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawks Cover

15.9%

Aggies Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NCAT -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCAT)

UMES By 1-7 points

10.7%

UMES By 8-14 points

3.3%

NCAT By 1-7 points

23.0%

NCAT By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
65
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
75
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
Simulated Score
65
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
72
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aggies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aggies (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Loss
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 12, 2025 UMES @ NCAT 79 - 82
Feb 24, 2020 UMES @ NCAT 62 - 83
Jan 11, 2020 NCAT @ UMES 91 - 53
Feb 11, 2019 UMES @ NCAT 61 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +61.8% more
North Carolina A&T: 4.9 vs Maryland Eastern Shore: 3.0
Rebounding (L5) +31.4% more
North Carolina A&T: 38.9 vs Maryland Eastern Shore: 29.6
Steals (L5) +24.9% more
North Carolina A&T: 6.1 vs Maryland Eastern Shore: 4.9
Assists (L5) +37.6% more
Maryland Eastern Shore: 14.3 vs North Carolina A&T: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UMES Score 65.0 79
NCAT Score 75.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.4 / 32.9 33.0 / 26.0
Assists 9.0 / 14.3 14.0 / 22.0
Blocks 4.9 / 3.0 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 43.4 / 50.0 44.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 69.8 / 75.3 82.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 38.9 / 29.6 38.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.1 / 4.9 3.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 15.5 / 15.1 13.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UMES
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: +0.2
NCAT Advantage
11-19-0 (36.7%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UMES
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: +0.2
NCAT Advantage
16-12-0 (57.1%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UMES
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +0.5
NCAT
16-12-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCAT
UMES
NCAT
UMES
ML
52% 14-13
66% 21-11
63% 17-10
81% 21-5
ATS
63% 17-10
69% 22-10
64% 18-10
81% 21-5
TTL
69% 18-8-1
66% 21-11
100% 28-0
100% 26-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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