ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
14-11 | Road
115
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
19-5 | Home
142
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
PISTONS
100%
HAWKS
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
210.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-36.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +36.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ATL -36.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-7 points
0.2%
ATL By 8-14 points
1.4%
DET By 1-7 points
0.0%
DET By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
123
ATLANTA
Detroit
87
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Atlanta
109
ATLANTA
Detroit
118
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (-7)
Loss
Proj Spread: -36.0
D
Sim
Pistons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u232.5
Loss
Proj Total: 210.0
D
Sim
u232.5
Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 25, 2026
ATL @ DET
130 - 129
Dec 12, 2025
ATL @ DET
115 - 142
Dec 1, 2025
ATL @ DET
98 - 99
Nov 18, 2025
DET @ ATL
120 - 112
Feb 23, 2025
DET @ ATL
148 - 143
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+29.7% more
Atlanta: 10.6
vs
Detroit: 7.5
Assists (L5)
+18.4% more
Atlanta: 32.1
vs
Detroit: 26.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+12.3%
Atlanta: 87.7%
vs
Detroit: 75.4%
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.7%
Atlanta: 49.0%
vs
Detroit: 47.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
123.0
115
DET Score
87.0
142
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.4 / 36.0
41.0 / 31.0
Assists
26.2 / 32.1
34.0 / 28.0
Blocks
5.6 / 3.4
6.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
47.3 / 49.0
58.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
75.4 / 87.7
83.0 / 84.0
Rebounding
47.4 / 43.0
40.0 / 37.0
Steals
7.5 / 10.6
16.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
16.7 / 15.4
14.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
ATL
DET
ATL
ML
55%
64-53
50%
52-52
49%
47-49
55%
48-40
ATS
53%
60-54-3
53%
55-48-1
49%
47-49
55%
48-40
TTL
60%
70-46-1
53%
55-48-1
100%
96-0
100%
88-0
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