Home / NBA Projections NBA / Jazz @ Grizzlies UTAH @ MEM

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

8-15  |  Road

130
FINAL
Fri, Dec 12 • 8:00 PM ET
FedExForum
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

11-13  |  Home

126
AI Model Win Probability
JAZZ
0%
📊
GRIZZLIES
100%
JAZZ --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
JazzUTAH (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jazz Cover

46.0%

Grizzlies Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MEM +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

UTAH By 1-7 points

26.2%

UTAH By 8-14 points

16.9%

MEM By 1-7 points

24.3%

MEM By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
110
UTAH
109
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
115
UTAH
122
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jazz Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Grizzlies (+7) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u243.5 Loss
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Sim u243.5 Win
Proj Total: 237.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 MEM @ UTAH 101 - 147
Feb 20, 2026 UTAH @ MEM 114 - 123
Dec 23, 2025 MEM @ UTAH 137 - 128
Dec 12, 2025 UTAH @ MEM 130 - 126
Mar 25, 2025 MEM @ UTAH 140 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +3.5%
Utah: 79.5% vs Memphis: 76.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
Utah: 37.5% vs Memphis: 34.2%
Blocks (L5) +88.8% more
Memphis: 4.9 vs Utah: 2.6
Steals (L5) +43.8% more
Memphis: 10.3 vs Utah: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score 110.0 130
MEM Score 109.0 126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.2 / 37.5 46.0 / 36.0
Assists 28.4 / 27.5 32.0 / 33.0
Blocks 4.9 / 2.6 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 48.6 / 46.1 46.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 76.0 / 79.5 71.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 48.8 / 39.5 49.0 / 58.0
Steals 10.3 / 7.2 4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 18.5 / 14.7 10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
MEM Advantage
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH Advantage
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
UTAH
MEM
UTAH
ML
57% 59-44
60% 96-63
50% 41-41
48% 40-43
ATS
63% 65-38
68% 108-51
50% 41-41
48% 40-43
TTL
70% 71-31-1
75% 119-39-1
100% 82-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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