Home / NBA Projections NBA / Nets @ Mavericks BKN @ DAL

BROOKLYN

NETSBKN

6-17  |  Road

111
FINAL
Fri, Dec 12 • 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

9-16  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
NETS
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
NETS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
199.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
BROOKLYN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Brooklyn)
NetsBKN (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nets Cover

98.2%

Mavericks Cover

1.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BKN -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BKN)

BKN By 1-7 points

6.8%

BKN By 8-14 points

16.9%

DAL By 1-7 points

1.4%

DAL By 8-14 points

0.2%

AI Model Projected Score
110
BROOKLYN
89
DALLAS
Simulated Score
114
BROOKLYN
118
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nets (-8) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u219.0 Loss
Proj Total: 199.0
D
Sim u219.0 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 24, 2026 DAL @ BKN 123 - 114
Jan 12, 2026 BKN @ DAL 105 - 113
Dec 12, 2025 BKN @ DAL 111 - 119
Mar 31, 2025 BKN @ DAL 113 - 109
Mar 24, 2025 DAL @ BKN 120 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +31.3% more
Brooklyn: 18.2 vs Dallas: 12.5
Blocks (L5) +30.1% more
Brooklyn: 6.2 vs Dallas: 4.3
Rebounding (L5) +10.9% more
Brooklyn: 42.7 vs Dallas: 38.0
Assists (L5) +9.7% more
Brooklyn: 29.1 vs Dallas: 26.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BKN Score 110.0 111
DAL Score 89.0 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.1 / 35.9 33.0 / 44.0
Assists 26.3 / 29.1 33.0 / 26.0
Blocks 4.3 / 6.2 8.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 52.4 / 47.6 49.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 77.7 / 77.5 77.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 38.0 / 42.7 40.0 / 43.0
Steals 8.0 / 7.1 10.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 18.2 14.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BKN
20-62-0 (24.4%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
DAL Advantage
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BKN Advantage
38-43-1 (46.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -1.3
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
BKN
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: -0.7
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
BKN
DAL
BKN
ML
62% 63-39
53% 50-45
54% 44-37
59% 48-34
ATS
67% 68-34
52% 48-44-3
54% 44-37
59% 48-34
TTL
59% 60-41-1
57% 54-41
100% 81-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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